NFL Preview Part 2 - AFC Plus News & Notes

Having just completed my preview of the NFC, it only makes sense to get into depth into the Powerhouse AFC but not before I go over a couple of pieces of news from the last few days, what with cut down day having just passed us on Saturday. Here are some things I thought were of note.

Tim Tebow got cut by the Patriots despite a decent camp by all accounts. He came in not really expecting to challenge for the back up role as Ryan Mallett is firmly entrenched in the "Matt Cassell" spot as perpetual-clipboard-holder-unless-something-catastrophic-happens-to-Tom Brady role but he had probably earned himself a spot as the 3rd QB on the team. On any other team other then the Patriots, he would be #3. The Patriots are not about to waste a roster spot on a player that would hardly ever get any use (if at all) so he was logically cut. on his 3rd team in 18 months, maybe its time Tebow started to look at things differently with regards to his career and start to consider that his time in the NFL as a QB might well be done.

He still can't throw a good spiral, he still can't seem to read a defense effectively enough to avoid getting sacked at the most inopportune time and despite a winning record as a starter, no other team seems willing to give him a shot as a starter despite the apparent need of several teams (including Arizona and Buffalo). He will try to catch on now with another team as a back up but his best bet might well be to come to the CFL and really learn how to actually be a good QB or consider becoming a Fullback with his size and speed to stay in the NFL. He has a lot of praying to do now, that's for sure.

This will be the last time I bring up Aaron Hernandez in reference to the NFL as after this little message, he will be to me like his victim; dead. Nonetheless, I feel it is important to comment on the upcoming Rolling Stones article and some legal opinions that have come up in support of a more than likely acquittal of the former rising NFL Star. Lets start with the article which details Hernandez increased use of Angel dust, increased paranoia and fear of those around him resulting in his surrounding himself with gang members and some of the issues that arose after his father's sudden death when he was 16.

First, his father dying was tragic as it was sudden and out of nowhere but he is now 10 years past that and while it always stays with you, he cannot continue to blame his current behavior and actions on that one incident. At some point, we all accept the bad things that happen in our lives and move on with our own lives. He never did or has as he seems to still be that same dumb 16 year old, acting out and hanging out with the wrong crowd.

Using Angel dust and getting high all the time and in the process becoming incredibly paranoid in the process, is yet another example of the fact he is still acting like a 16 year old with an adult body and the riches of an NFL star player to fuel him on. Apparently, there were several incidents that happened in Florida when he played for Urban Meyer, which were swept under the rug that would have helped the Patriots keep a closer eye on him and possibly better control of how he behaved outside the teams facilities.

There has been more insight spread out in the media about the actual case against Hernandez and, given this new information, informed legal minds firmly believe that not only will he beat the charge in court but that he will be back in the NFL as early as next season. The case is missing 2 big key pieces that would prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he did in fact kill Odin Lloyd; the murder weapon and an eye witness to corroborate that he was in fact the trigger man. All the evidence against Hernandez is circumstantial which means the prosecution will have a very difficult time proving him guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.

The toughest part to understand is that if he is acquitted, why would any team take on this guy into their lineup? Yes he has million dollar talent but he has a $0.10 brain to go with it which means he is bound to make another mistake like this because in his mind he probably doesn't even think he made a mistake to begin with. Then again, come to think of it, there is one team I could see that would fit him right in with their team philosphy; The Oakland Raiders. If Al Davis was still alive, he would have Hernandez agent on speed dial and call him the moment the judge reads out the words "Not Guilty".

With all that said, it's time to go into the AFC and give you my 2013 preview;

Division Winners:

AFC EAST: New England Patriots

AFC WEST: Denver Broncos

AFC SOUTH: Houston Texans

AFC NORTH: Cincinnati Bengals

Wild Card #1: Indianapolis Colts

Wild Card #2: Pittsburgh Steelers

In Contention: San Diego, Oakland, Baltimore, Tennessee, Cleveland, Miami

AFC East

Division Finish:

1. New England (12-4)
2. Miami (7-9)
3. Buffalo (5-11)
4. New York Jets (2-14)

New England Patriots:

Projected Record: 12-4

Division Record: 6-0

We all know what to expect out of the Patriots. Future Hall of Fame Coach with a Future Hall of Fame Quaterback playing in arguably the easiest division now in Football (mostly because no significant free agent of note in his right mind would go to any of the other 3 teams in this division over the last 3 years to compete against Brady and Belichick twice a season), this might yet be their easiest of all of their division titles during their historic and dynastic run. There were some holes on the Defence last year that have been worked on in the off season and the loss of Welker to the Broncos really hurt Brady personally but he has done more with less in the past so this is nothing new for him. Losing Brandon Llyod as well was a shock to the system for Brady but, as he has always done in the past, he has put it behind him and moved forward looking at what he can do with the guys who are there with him now. What he has is a young receiving corp with his Welker clone still around in Julian Edelman as the elder statesman having been on the team for 6 years.

We will see an adapting offense with more of an emphasis on the run game as well as the Patriots have 2 solid running backs in Stephen Ridley and Shane Vereen along with Brandon Bolden and veteran Kick Return specialist and RB Leon Washington. Given the way the division looks, this team will easily be 6-0 against the East and be basically testing themselves the rest of the season to see what they need to do to improve upon losing last season in the AFC Championship Game to the Ravens.

Miami Dolphins:

Projected Record: 7-9

Division Record: 4-2

Here is a team that is on the rise but not nearly as good as people seem to think they will be this year. Sure, Ryan Tannehill has a chance to be their first long term solution at QB since Dan Marino but Dan the Man he is not. He will regress a bit this year and need to learn from the mistakes that he will make in order to come back in his 3rd season as the real answer that the Dolphins hope he can become. The defense has always been solid and there won't be too much of a slide there this season. They may have a shot at .500 and be in the conversation for a Wild Card spot but they will fall just short.

With all that being said, he still has an outside shot at making this a 9 win team if Tannehill can play consistently and limit his turnovers, and if the Football Gods think the Dolphins are finally ready to be a good team again, they may just challenge for a playoff spot, but probably not.

 

Buffalo Bills:

Projected Record: 5-11

Division Record: 2-4

 

Ah yes, the ever plodding Buffalo Bills and their decade (and counting) long string of ineptitude will continue yet again as they still don't seem to know how to get back to the level of excellence they displayed when Jim Kelly and the K-Gun were tearing up the league. The closest they have come was when Doug Flutie led the team to the playoffs last in 1999 only to be short sighted in their insane selection of Rob Johnson as their starting QB against the Tennessee Titans. Some would argue their Playoff absence/jinx started there as the Music City Miracle was the Football Gods way of punishing them for their illogical choice and the 14 years of playoff futility since just a way to solidify just how asinine they were in there treatment of Flutie the following year.

Things looked like they were going to finally start to change when they drafted a good QB prospect in EJ Manuel and signed Kevin Kolb. I stress that they LOOKED like they were starting to turn until of course Manuel hurt his knee and Kolb suffered yet another serious concussion in the pre-season and could be forced to retire. If ever there was a team that could really use a guy like Tim Tebow, its the Buffalo Bills but of course they will NOT go after him. When a guy has God on his side, probably best to pick him up just to change your fortunes with the big guy, just a thought Bills brass.

Back to the issue at hand; this will be yet another season to forget unless EJ Manual starts to develop ahead of schedule and turns into another Russel Wilson instead of another JP Losman. Good luck with that one. Every other aspect of this team is a work in progress and, with a tough opening 6 games of the season, 5 wins might be tough to come by, if they didn't have the Jets in their division.

New York Jets:

Projected Record: 2-14

Division Record: 0-6

  
This could be the worst team in the NFL and it seems even Rex Ryan knows that as well. It would explain why he put Sanchez back into the 4th exhibition game of the season in the 4th quarter with rookies and 2nd year players fighting to make the team resulting in a shoulder injury that could keep him out for 6 weeks. It was Ryan showing his former starter some mercy as its more then likely that by the time he returns healthy enough to play, he could be re-joining a team that is 0-6.

Yes I have nothing good to say about an aging team with a rookie QB in Geno Smith who is essentially going to be fed to the wolves for the first 6 weeks of the season. He looks like he could be good eventually but not with this team this year. He will be happy to hear the news that Sanchez is ready to return by Week 7. This team will be in the discussion for the Top Pick in the 2014 NFL Draft by Canadian Thanksgiving.

AFC West

1. Denver (14-2)
2. San Diego (8-8)
3. Oakland (7-9)
4. Kansas City (6-10)

Denver Broncos:

Projected Record: 14-2

Division Record: 6-0

Peyton Manning proved to everyone that he is among the all time greats with his bounce back season after having 3 serious neck surgeries 2 years ago. His unceremonious departure from Indy turned out to be exactly what he needed to rejuvenate his career and return the Broncos to the powerhouse team they had been almost a decade ago. With a strong defense to go along with Manning's offense, the Broncos SHOULD have been in the AFC Championship Game last year, had it not been for one blown coverage in the dying seconds against the Ravens.

This year, after adding Wes Welker from the Patriots and keeping 10 of 11 starters from last year's stellar "D", they will all be playing with a massive chip on their shoulders because of that one missed play so look for another great start and Manning to be among the league leaders in just about every offensive category.

 

San Diego Chargers:

Projected Record: 8-8

Division Record: 4-2

This is a team in transition and Philip Rivers has a lot of work to do as they try to re-tool instead of re-build. LaDanian is gone, Norv Turner and AJ Smith are gone. Shawn Merriman is gone. Ryan Matthews is young and should be better in his second season then he was in his rookie year but he will not be a real threat to worry about as of yet for any defense. Until he is, look for teams to double team Rivers' young receivers (Floyd and Alexander in particular) and dare him to go to the aging and fading Antonio Gates. Danny Woodhead is an interesting complementary piece but may end being wasted on this average (at best) team.

To me, this looks like a team that is not good enough to challenge for anything more then a possible Wild Card team at best, finishing 8-8 could be a mixed blessing/curse given that they might be fooled into thinking that they are better then they are and this is a team that probably needs to hit rock bottom and start over. Maybe even dealing away Philip Rivers after this season to speed up that process wouldn't be a bad thing (Hello Arizona!!!)

Oakland Raiders:

Projected Record: 7-9

Division Record: 2-4

Carson Palmer wanted out of Cincinnati so bad he retired and ended up being dealt to the Raiders. That clearly did not work as now Matt Flynn is the starting QB. The former back up in Green Bay turned one incredible end of year game into a big money deal with the Raiders. This is a team in transition but with a lot of young talent at many key skill areas. There isn't a notable name on the offense other then Flynn and RB Darren McFadden. Of course the team could always throw us all a curve and start Terrelle Pryor....nah, even they aren't THAT stupid, right? If that's the case, then you can flip flop Oakland and KC's records because that to me shows a coaching issue with this team that I didn't think was there. But, of course this is the Raiders so...

Kansas City Chiefs:

Projected Record: 6-10

Division Record: 0-6

So the cleaning house began last year when the Chiefs got rid of Scott Pioli and the entire coaching staff. Both the starting QB and back up in Matt Cassell and Brady Quinn are gone as well. Gone too are all the memories of a tragic season, both on the field and off it. In their place are Andy Reid, a new philosphy both in the boardroom and on the field and a new field general in Alex Smith, the former #1 pick overall that lost his job in San Fran last year. In with all these changes are new hopes of a team finally on the right track.

Knowing that they were going to target Smith, the Chiefs focused on their offense and protecting their investment in Smith by drafting an Offensive Tackle as the #1 pick (Eric Fisher), a Tight End and a running Back with their next 2 selections. It's possible this team could go 0-6 in their division and still get to 6-10. It's also entirely possible that this team could end up 10-6 as they are truly a miss mash of pieces from the draft, other teams former players and draft busts and a new coaching philosophy. This team intrigues me and could be a dark horse Wild Card team.

AFC South

1. Houston (10-6)
2. Indianapolis (10-6)
3. Tennessee (9-7)
4. Jacksonville (6-10)

Houston Texans:

Projected Record: 10-6

Division Record: 4-2

Solid team, top to bottom and bound to make the breakthrough one of these years. The Texans have been a good team on the verge of becoming great for years but they always seem to run into an opponent that knows how to exploit their weakness. Offensively, Matt Schaub and Arian Foster are the keys and have been good to great over the last 3 years. Defensively, JJ Watt is a force and nearly unstoppable one on one. The only thing really stopping this team from being in the Super Bowl this year is their inability to win the "Big" game against an opponent like the Patriots or Broncos (Colts in the past, it might just be Peyton Manning they can't beat). Look for a slight regression this season as their division has improved in the last 2 years and they seem to have not quite figured out what they need to do to get over the proverbial hump.

 

Indianapolis Colts:

Projected Record: 10-6

Division Record: 4-2

Andrew Luck had a great rookie season. He and his teammates were inspired by their coach, Chuck Pagano's fight with Cancer and his victory over the disease. Pagano's absence from the team and the way that departed Offensive Coordinator Bruce Arians (Head Coach in Arizona now) are now a thing of the past and the real work of Year 2 has begun. Can Luck be on their side again? Will he be able to get past the "Sophomore Jinx" and continue to leads this team back to respectability? I would say for the most part yes, he will. The Colts are a balanced team in all facets of the game and should be able to get to 10 wins again earning them another Wild Card birth, but that's where it will end again. This team is about 2 years away from becoming a true powerhouse again.

Tennessee Titans:

Projected Record: 9-7

Division Record: 2-4

Jake Locker is ready. The Titans appear ready. So why hasn't it happened yet for the Titans. Injuries are a big part of things and inconsistency as well. Having Matt Hasselbeck as your back up was a good thing last year. this year you have former Bills starter Ryan Fitzpatrick so no real drop off there. The biggest issue they have had is in the running game where they relied on a return to form of Chris Johnson for the last 2 years and the other running backs on the roster to contribute. Johnson will never get close to the 2000 yards he had several years ago. His 1243 yards last year was a decent number but when the 2nd leading rusher on the team is your starting QB (Locker had 291 rushing yards), you have a lack of depth at the RB position. It looks like that situation has been corrected with the additions of Shonn Greene and Jackie Battle but only time will tell. The "D" looks solid if unspectacular but the key to this team will be QB play and how long Locker stays healthy. If he plays in 14 of the 16 games, then this team has an outside shot at a Wild Card birth.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars:

Projected Record: 6-10

Division Record: 2-4

This team has undergone major reconstruction in the last 2 years as well as a hold out with star RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Their first round pick, Blaine Gabbart, was so bad last year, Chad Henne had to come in and spell him in order to save what was left of his confidence. There are vast holes all over this team except for at RB. Jones-Drew is the only player they have that gives them a fighting chance each and every day. He is the modern day equivalent of Barry Sanders and his plight in Detroit. Without Jones-Drew for most of the year, its sad that he still led the team in rushing yards and it also explains why they went 2-14. They have added some nice pieces through the Draft in Ace Sanders at WR and Luke Joeckel at Tackle to protect Gabbard but they are at least a couple of years and a giant leap from Gabbart away from being a respectable team. Look for calls of bringing in Tebow to get VERY loud if Gabbart struggles yet again. 6 wins might be a stretch.

AFC North

1. Cincinnati (11-5)
2. Pittsburgh (9-7)
3. Baltimore (8-8)
4. Cleveland (7-9)

Cincinnati Bengals:

Projected Record: 11-5

Division Record: 3-3

They are the "Bungles" no more. This team is poised to take over the division now that they have solidified every aspect of their team. The "D" is solid top to bottom and the heart of any team Marvin Lewis wants to create. The former Defesive Coordinator of the Ravens has been working towards a team like this for years and credit should go to Bengals Ownership in showing faith in him and allowing him to finally get this team to the point it is at now. This team will ultimately go only as far as Andy Daulton is able to take them as this isn't the 1999 Ravens team that won DESPITE Trent Dilfer's inability to do much under center. Daulton has enough weapons around him to be have a breakthrough season and that is exactly what he will do as he leads the Bengals to their first division title in years. Hosting and winning a playoff game is about as far as they will go but this team is on the verge of becoming a true power.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

Projected Record: 9-7

Division Record: 3-3

No team better exemplifies this "black and blue" division then this blue collar team that is built upon its "D" and running game. The thing is they have slowly been having their defense wilt over the last 3 years and their running game has been pushed aside in favour of an aerial attack. Big problems have resulted as Big Ben has seen more of the infirmary over the last 2 years then anyone had envisioned when they began to switch their offensive philosophy. Had their defense remained as stout as ever, maybe Ben isn't quite as exposed as he has been lately as he has been forced to desperately attempt to get his team back into games through the air.

Given the strange choices made in the Draft (where was their required focus on the defensive line? They had the worst run defense in the NFL last year), giving them a 9 win season might be a bit of a stretch but they do have a division that always seems to beat up each other which could play to their advantage. Maybe I am buying into the Steelers mystique a bit here but I have a feeling Big Ben might have one spectacular season left in him. 

Baltimore Ravens:

Projected Record: 8-8

Division Record: 3-3

Last year was a fluke. I don't care what anyone says. The Ravens got hot at the right time, they got some calls that went their way in the AFC Championship game against the Patriots and they rode the emotional wave that was Ray Lewis final few games in the NFL. That's all gone now along with Lewis and Ed Reed which just means that this team is destined to crash back down to earth. Just like the Steelers however, the Ravens will benefit from a tough division that sees every team rise to the occasion emotionally when they play divisional games.

Joe Flacco was so wildly overpaid, and it will show this year. Granted he was the only QB in NFL History to win a playoff game each of his first 5 seasons, he, like his team, will crash back down to earth this year as this isn't a contract season. They will miss the playoffs as injuries will pull them back down to earth and the loss of 2 long time veteran leaders who will no longer be there to lean on as this team transitions from Ray Lewis' team to Flaccos'.

Cleveland Browns:

Projected Record: 7-9

Division Record: 3-3

This is a team on the rise. Colt McCoy has all the tools and the team finally seems to be on the same page in terms of drafting and building a solid foundation around a QB who can lead them back to respectability. They will be in the dog fight which will be the playoff hunt for the final Wild Card spot, falling just short but finally giving the long suffering fans of Cleveland Browns football, something to cheer about for the first time since Bernie Kosar led them to the Playoffs last in 1994.

This team has all the makings of a potential dark horse this year, it just depends on if they are able to improve upon their divisional record. To make the playoffs, they will need to be 4-2 or better and that is one tall order.

Now that I have gotten through the entire AFC, here is my AFC Championship Game Predition

AFC Championship Game:

New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos

My Super Bowl Prediction:

Green Bay vs Denver

Now that it's done, my next preview will be in 2 weeks as I go over my NHL Season Preview

Until Next time...