Blue Jays Need Some Changes

This wasn't the first key injury but it clearly was a sign that 2012 was not going to be the Jays year 

Oh how things change. It was just 6 months ago that the Blue Jays were starting off on what was supposed to be their coming out party season. This was supposed to be the year that the Jays began their rapid ascent up the American League East Standings and challenged the traditional powers of the game for the first time since 1993. They rattled off an impressive Grapefruit League record, going 24-6 and seemed poised to have breakthrough seasons from several of their promising young players. Injuries and the pressure seemed to have gotten the better of the team this year as they enter Saturday’s game against the Rays with a record of 66-83. Some changes need to be made to the roster heading into next year and I know exactly what they need to do.

Lets start with the bullpen. Since the massive 10 player trade that was completed between the Jays and the Astros, the Jays bullpen has solidified and become among the most consistent in the American League. They have also become among the league leaders in Strikeouts since they traded for Brad Lincoln (Pittsburgh) and Steve Delabar (Seattle). With Sergio Santos due back next year from Shoulder issues and, possible returns of Darrin Oliver (he may retire, he is 42), Branden Lyon and Jason Frasor (who holds the Jays record for relief appearances and is married to a local woman), the bullpen has the makings of being pretty solid. When you make Brad Lincoln the long man and Aaron Loop to the mix as a situational side-arm lefty, there are pieces in place to really give the back end of the pitching staff some stability it has lacked for a few years.

When Drabek, Morrow and Drew Hutchison went down with injuries 3 consecutive game days, 

not only was it shocking but it set back the Jays Pitching staff 2 years in the process 

Now comes the starters and an area that seemed to be a strength heading into the season given the young arms coming up through the farm system. With Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison seen as potential top of the rotation guys down the road, their elbow injuries (and subsequent Tommy John-Ligament replacement surgeries) really threw the team for a loop in early June. Both of them are more than likely not going to be significant contributors to the team until the 2014 season. Carlos Villanueva is more than likely not going to return, given the way he reacted to some fair and accurate criticisms by Alex Anthopolos of his career up to this point and Brett Cecil seems to be finished as a starter for this team. He and Aaron Laffey, although solid at times, more then likely will be shown the door over the winter.

With those 3 most likely gone, that would leave Brandon Morrow as the #1 Starter, Ricky Romero and JA Happ and Henderson Alvarez fighting it out internally for the #2,3 and 4 spots with 1 opening left in the starting 5. This is where the Jays need to go out and make a splash. The team needs a strong starting pitcher added to the mix. There are several  that will be on the open market in the offseason including Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster, James Shields (who seems to love pitching in the AL East and against the Jays particularly), Anibal Sanchez, Daisuke Matzusaka, Tim Hudson, Jake Peavy, Gavin Floyd and Shaun Marcum (if you are looking for a solid #3). To push this team into the next level, the Jays need to go after 4 or 5 of these guys and land at least 2 of them. They need to chase after Dempster, Greinke, Sheilds, Hudson, Peavy and Marcum with some solid, attractive long term contract offers and land a new ace for the staff as well as possibly some depth.

 Greinke (with the Royals) and Marcum (as a Jay 3 years ago) would both look good in TO next year

Only 1 of them will most likely sign with the team

If the Jays were able to somehow come out of the off-season with someone like James Sheids and add Shaum Marcum as well, then suddenly you have a starting rotation of Morrow, Romero, Sheilds, Happ and Marcum, giving Alvarez some more time to work on a 3^rd pitch (his slider needs work and Triple A might be best for the 22 year old anyway to work on that next season) and as a reliable 1^st call up option if something were to happen to one of the starting 5. Given that in a typical season, each MLB team goes through about 7-10 starting pitchers due to injuries, trades and performance issues, adding 2 free agents to the roster would definitely bolster the depth of the pitching staff and give them. The probability of this happening, signing someone like Sheilds or Greinke, is highly unlikely however.

There is also another option for this team when it comes to adding to the pitching staff and that is by way of trade. It’s no secret that the Chicago Cubs are pretty much looking to blow up their roster and start over. One of their biggest trade chips to use is starting pitcher Matt Garza, another good arm who has experience in the challenging AL East from his time as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. Given the way that some of the current Cubs have played, they could pretty much use help everywhere, particularly in the outfield. Here is my suggestion to Double A with regards to a possible trade with the Cubs;

To Chicago: Shortstop Yunel Escobar, 1B/DH/OF Adam Lind, OF Rajai Davis, OF Moises Sierra

To Toronto: Starting Pitcher Matt Garza, OF/2B Alfonso Soriano

 Garza pitched well this year for the sad sack Cubs and he has AL East Experience with the Rays

At first, when you look at this deal, two questions come to mind. #1 Why would the Cubs want Escobar and Lind, given that they have their long term answer at Short in Castro and Rizzo is their top hitter and plays 1B. #2. Why would the Blue Jays take on Soriano and his bloated contract? Well here is my rationale.

Basically, each of those 2 players (Lind and Escobar) are Major League talent upgrades over what the Cubs currently have on their roster. To improve a team with as little available young, up and coming talent in their farm system as the Cubs have, getting talent is important. So even if they end up being dealt elsewhere for prospects, it is a way of adding talent to your team overall. Plus, the keys to this deal for the Cubs are dumping Soriano’s contract (which expires in 2014 and still commands $18 million a year) and getting the multi-talented Sierra to patrol Right field for them. Davis could also be a cheap and effective Center field option for them for at least a couple of years but the keys would be Sierra and dropping the albatross of Soriano (who has seen the fans turn on him in his time as a Cub).

 Even with his big contract, he has produced with 30 HR's, and 104 RBI this season

For the Jays, there are several positive that would come from such a move. #1. Soriano solves your 2^nd Base issue. Yes, he has played in the outfield for the last few years but his primary position when he was a Yankee was 2^nd base. For all his deficiencies defensively, his offense would be a huge upgrade over Kelly (Strikeout) Johnson.  Further, adding a starter like Garza would be the same as signing Shaun Marcum or Shields and gives the Jays another top of the rotation starter. As well, by trading away Davis and Sierra, Double A would be clearing a logjam in Left field and creating a spot on the roster next year for Anthony Gose who has shown that he has all the tools to be a solid pro. Lastly, by dealing away underperforming players like Lind and Escobar (especially given the controversy Yunel has brought upon himself recently), you are sending a message to the rest of the team that you should always be giving your all and just because you are in the Majors does not mean that you can relax and stop trying to improve.

With the departures of Lind, Escobar, Davis and Sierra, there would be some defensive changes that would require addressing. This would of course impact the batting order as well so I will do both at once by demonstrating the new Blue Jays batting order for next season;

1.       Brett Lawrie – 3B

2.       Colby Rasmus – CF

3.       Jose Bautista – LF

4.       Edwin Encarnacion – 1B

5.       David Ortiz – DH

6.       Alfonso Soriano – 2B

7.       JP Arencibia – C

8.       Adeiny Hechavarria – SS

9.       Anthony Gose – RF

 He would look GREAT as a Jay

Starting Pitchers

1.       Brandon Morrow

2.       Matt Garza

3.       Ricky Romero

4.       JA Happ

5.       *Shaun Marcum

(Marcum is on the record as saying he would love to return to the team and he would be a great fit as the #4 or 5 starter. This also leaves Henderson Alvarez and Jesse Litsch at Triple A Buffalo next year as additional depth in case of injuries. Litsch needs the time to get back up to strength and Alvarez needs to work on his slider)

                Bullpen

1.       Closer – Sergio Santos

2.       Set-up – Casey Jannsen

3.       Set-up – Steve Delabar

4.       7^th inning – Brandon Lyon

5.       7^th inning – Jason Frasor

6.       Lefty – Darrin Oliver

7.       Lefty – Aaron Loop

8.       Long Man – Brad Lincoln

               

Bench Players

1.       Mike McCoy – INF/OF

2.       Jeff Mathis – C

3.       Yan Gomes – Super Utility (C/OF/1B)

 I know there was 1 name there that stood out in the batting order and for good reason, since I had not mentioned him as of yet until now. Signing David Ortiz as the new Blue Jay DH would be perfect for this team. His contract is up in Boston and with the new direction that team seems to want to go in, he would be the perfect fit in the #5 spot and protecting both Jose and Easy E in the lineup. He would also help this team mature with his leadership abilities and the fact that he would fit right in with the Latin American influence in the clubhouse. His calming yet commanding presence would be a welcome addition to the team, much like the way the 1992 team went out and signed Dave Winfield as the missing piece to the puzzle back then.

The top 7 in the Blue Jays order would now all have 20+ home run power and the potential to be one of the most feared lineups in the Major Leagues next season. I also flipped Bautista from Right to Left field to take advantage of the fact that Gose has more range and a better arm than Jose (not by much mind you) and to take some of the strain off of Jose with all the long throws he has had to make both to the plate and to 3^rd base from right. The team needs a healthy Jose and playing Left field, I believe, would be better for him.

 After a slow start, Adeiny has shown that he is ready for prime time

Having All of Famer Omar Vizquel there to help him learn the ropes hasn't hurt either

If you look at the defense now, with Hechevarria at Short and Soriano at 2^nd, it’s a new look and might give the Jays a bit of a weakness at 2^nd but many people believe that right now, Adeiny is already among the top defensive short stops in the game (back when he was in Triple A). He should be able to more than make up for any range issues Soriano may have as he re-adjusts back to being an everyday 2^nd baseman.

Obviously these changes will not come cheap as Ortiz will command about $15 million a year on a 2 year deal and acquiring Soriano and Garza will cost $44 million over 2 years for all 3 players. With the departures of Lind ($10 million over 2 option years), Escobar ($15 million, 3 years), Davis ($5.25 million option), and Kelly Johnson ($4 million), at least those departing contracts somewhat off-set those that would be coming in;

In:

Ortiz – 2 years, $30 million

Garza – 1 year at $8 million, 1 option year at $10

Soriano – 2 years, $36 million

Total - $84 million over 2 years

Out:

Lind – 2 option years, $10 million

Escobar – 3 years, $15 million

Davis – Arbitration Eligible, Made $5.25 million this year

Johnson - $4 million, free agent

Total - $34.25 million off the books

Overall, these moves represent a total investment in the team over 2 years of an additional $50 million ($40 million if they do not pick up the option on Garza) and given the fact that attendance has improved by 20% year over year and ratings have skyrocketed this year (or at least they had up until all the injuries started mounting), it is now time for Rogers to show the fans that they are behind the team as much as they are by putting their money where it counts most; into the team. Even Double A has come out and said as much about this coming off-season.

If you only add $20 million to the team’s overall payroll for next year and have THAT lineup on the field to start the season, I can almost guarantee that (if they can stay healthy) they will be right in the thick of things for a playoff position this time next year AND they will allow some younger players to slowly return from injuries. This added depth to the pitching staff would allow Jesse Litcsh, Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison some added time to recover without the pressure of thinking they need to rush. It would give both Litcsh and Henderson Alvarez time to refine their craft at Triple A while keeping the Major League team highly competitive and in a position to challenge for one of the 2 Wild Card spots.

One last thing that needs to be addressed. John Farrell's name has continued to be mentioned in connection with the Boston Red Sox since it became apparent that Bobby Valentine's days there were numbered. Where there is smoke, there is fire and just because he has gone on the record saying he is a Blue Jay (now), doesn't mean he isn't interested in becoming head honcho of the Red Sox for next season. Firstly, I would hold a private meeting with Farrell and see where his head is at. If he even remotely expresses interest in going over there, then I would immediately contact the Red Sox and see if they are seriously interested in him or not. If so, then you begin to negotiate with them in terms of trading Farrell over there. The last thing you want is the man in charge of your team to not actually want to be here. I would ask for Daniel Bard in any deal for Farrell, since he seems to be lost now with the Red Sox anyway.

This would obviously create a managerial vacancy with the team which could be filled very quickly with one man who should actually still be in the Big Leagues as a Manager right now anyway; Terry Francona. Two-time World Series winning managers don't grow on trees and he has the ability to help guide this team towards being a contender. As well, he woul help the team land "Big Papi".

 If Farrell wants to leave, Francona would be the ideal replacement

He played in Montreal and has nothing but good things to say about his experiences in Canada to this day. His players LOVED playing for him and, most importantly, he has handled big personalities and (particularly) Latin American Players in the past with honour and respect. He would be the perfect replacement.

After all these changes, I only have one question left for the team. Where is my consulting fee?